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I've totally failed at posting anything for um... nearly 6 months? That might be a new longest gap between posts. I've got several drafts that I really ought to have posted but for one reason or another didn't - maybe they'll appear, though given past history that's unlikely. Anyway, I'm back, and as there's local elections tomorrow I ought to have a look and see if anyone's worth voting for. Though given that I've received precisely zero flyers through the post, I'm not sure any of the parties are actually interested in being voted for...


First up: Labour are apparently running a Conservative voters meeting? Ah, actually this is a safe space where you can admit that you're going to vote Labour this time.

Next, the Greens are pointing out that everything's terrible - but don't worry, you can trust us to turn everything green. Look, we even got voted council of the year!

Meanwhile the Lib Dems would like you to know that they understand all your problems are the Conservatives' fault. So vote for the best candidate - sorry, best Lib Dem candidate - to fix it!

Finally the Tories are trying to define the word "home". Apparently the definition of "home" is "Tories rule Labour sucks OK"?
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I've voted, and not for you!


#pokemonatpollingstations 😅
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There's a set of local elections tomorrow, so I probably ought to work out who to vote for...


First up according to iPlayer is Labour! Basically, everything's too expensive and it's all the Tories' fault. But don't worry, we've got a plan... or rather, we've taken the Green Party's plan and changed the colour scheme.

Next is Alex Salmond's comeback tour in the form of the Alba Party. Basically, everything's too expensive and it's all Westminster's fault. But don't worry, once Scotland is (finally) independent everything will be fine.

The Green's are up next. They've bucked the trend with a Zoom meeting to show off how awesome they are. Somehow they got through it with not a single "you're on mute"!

Now it's the remains of the Lib Dems. Basically, everything's terrible and the Tories' just don't care. But don't worry, we do care!

The Tories now get a chance to defend themselves. They've decided that offence is the best form of defence (and that they can't trust Boris Johnson in front of the camera): vote Tory because Labour and the Lib Dems will ruin everything.

Back to Scotland for the SNP. Basically, everything went wrong and it's all the Tories fault for being untrustworthy. As demonstrated by a spontaneous Tory caber toss.

Last but not least, it's time for Plaid Cymru. It's an uphill struggle with lots of barriers, but if we persevere we can make a difference!


Well. There's a definite theme here among the traditional larger parties of either "attack the Tories!" or "attack everyone else!" (with honourable mention to Alba for "attack England!"). The Greens as usual took a different path, and while their message isn't as starkly delivered as it was in 2019 it's still quite strong - instead of attacking everyone and/or saying what they hope to do, they've pointed out that they can actually achieve change.
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Well, the exit poll for today's election has been announced, and the prediction is...

Landslide Tory victory

Conservatives: 368 (+50)
Labour: 191 (-71)
Lib Dem: 13 (+1)
SNP: 55 (+20)
Plaid Cymru: 3 (-1)
Green: 1 (no change)
Brexit Party: 0 (no change)
Other: 19 (+1)

That's an absolute majority of about 50 for the Tories (the magic number for victory is around 320), along with the SNP taking pretty much all of Scotland, and Labour getting thoroughly trounced.

We're all doomed.

Vote

Dec. 11th, 2019 06:39 pm
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So I feel like I should make an election post. I'll keep it simple.

Tomorrow, go and vote!

Seriously, that's it.

Vote for whichever candidate you want to. If you want to vote based on policies, that's fine. If you want to vote tactically, then that's fine. If you want to vote based on the coolest outfit... well, that's also fine. Your vote matters, no matter how you decide.

Or if you can't stand any of them (or think none of them have any fashion sense) then turn up and spoil your ballot instead (a friend who'll be counting them tomorrow evening says "make it amusing"). Spoilt ballots still matter - they're counted.

Most importantly, don't let the Twitter Rage Machine bully you. It's your choice, and don't let anyone tell you otherwise.
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Time to work out who to vote for! Actually, time for a rant first.

I don't want this to be an election based around who not to vote for, but certain candidates seem to be falling over themselves to offend large chunks of the electorate. I especially don't want this to be yet another election where making sure that one party loses is much more important than who actually wins, but apparently it's all about either defeating the evil Tories or the evil Labourites. The Tories will apparently destroy the economy through privatising everything, while Labour will apparently destroy the economy through nationalising everything. And the only way to fix this... is to "hold your nose and vote tactically" for the best-placed challenger, lest you suffer the wrath of the Twitter Rage Machine for daring to think otherwise.

How about, instead of trying to defeat any one party at all costs, we actually all go and vote for the party/candidate we each personally would most like to win? It'd be a much nicer campaign season if everyone was focussing on why we should elect candidates instead of why we shouldn't.

And if you get to the polling station and decide you can't support any of them, then go and write "none of the above, they're all idiots" on your ballot paper. It'll be officially counted as a spoilt ballot and will give one of the counters a laugh on election night.

Anyway, enough ranting, time to go and snark at what the parties have put out.


I've shuffled up the order, and first we get the SNP's latest film trailer for Scotland. It lulls you into a false sense of positivity before bludgeoning you with an anti-Westminster rant. Clearly everything is Boris Johnson's fault, and only the SNP are capable of sending a strongly worded letter to him or something.

Plaid Cymru on the other hand want you to know that they can achieve anything for Wales if only you believe. Aww.

The Greens... they've grown up. No cheesy video effects or glitzy song numbers, just a very effective 4-minute black-and-white monologue on politics, the climate, our future, and hope. I can't snark this.

Heading to the traditional 2.5 parties, it's the turn of the Lib Dems, jogging towards their destiny as the saviours of us all. Former Labour and Tory members welcome! But don't forget your shiny shoes.

Speaking of which, Labour seem to have forgotten that it's meant to be a party political broadcast, not a "why I am a farmer/doctor/firewoman" documentary. Oh, Vote Labour, and we'll, I dunno, do so something or other.

The Tories have bravely decided to interview Boris. Like all good Boris interviews, the answer to every question is a buzzword bingo of "paralysed Parliament", "coalition of chaos", "get Brexit done" or "oven ready". Oh, and he likes Marmite, and can't get takeaways ordered to Number 10.

Finally, it's the turn of Nigel Farage's comeback tour the Brexit Party, who seem to have given up aiming for first place and are settling for maybe having some say over Brexit, pretty please? Oh, and we'll fix the NHS.


And the verdict? Plaid Cymru have the most heartwarming clip, and the Greens the most anvilicious one.
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Bonus propaganda time! This Thursday it's the MEP elections that the Tories have failed to avoid!

I must confess, normally I've paid little attention to MEP elections. They've usually ended up happening at the same time as local elections and there's been almost no campaigning material specifically for them - I always got the impression that the main UK parties didn't try particularly hard with MEP elections. I've still voted of course, but that's not due to any effort on the part of the political parties.

This time, however, it's all different because of Brexit and has almost morphed into another Brexit referendum. All the parties have Opinions on Brexit (some may as well be single-policy parties!), and roughly summed up they are:

  • If you want to be in, vote Lib Dems, Change UK, or Green.
  • If you want to be out, vote The Brexit Party or UKIP.
  • If you want to shake it all about, vote Labour or Conservative.


Anyway, on to the Party Political Broadcasts and snark! Since last time (a whole three weeks ago), the BBC have changed their website and it's no longer alphabetically sorted, because why do a useful thing when one can do an unhelpful thing? Sigh. Full-text search it is! Oh, and you can't filter the results to just available programmes because again that would be a Useful Thing and we can't have Useful Things.


The Conservatives get to go first because that's the order the results came in. A collection of totally unbiased talking heads try to justify the chaos by saying it's everyone else's fault for playing politics. Oh, and the Maybot turns up to point out how voting Tory is in the national interest.

Next up, Greens! They're trying to convince everyone that the MEP elections do matter, really, honestly. Look, we even outnumber the Lib Dems! And we're green!

Labour on the other hand have a new film trailer full of gratuitous slow-mo. Showing in cinemas 23rd May, only Labour can save you from Theresa May's deal! We're not sure how, but we'll think of something!

According to UKIP it's all so simple: we voted to leave, and therefore we must leave. And by "leave" we mean "rage quit". Now. Or else.

Now for the Lib Dems. This time they get sidetracked by the glory days of the coalition, before realising that it is indeed MEP election time. Only the Lib Dems can stop Brexit! Oh, and we'll improve the economy and stuff.

Plaid Cymru have dug through their toy chest to put their clip together. The conclusion: everything is Westminster's fault.

New party on the block, Change UK, want to shake up politics with change! Change all the parties! We'll even let you change your mind on Brexit! Bring it on, Brexit Party!

Finally it's the turn of the SNP's latest film, A Tale of Two Cities. Or Two Parliaments. Or something. We'll let you know once Westminster stops ignoring us.


I wrote that list at the top before watching those clips, but looking back on it... yeah, that about sums it up. Labour haven't a clue what they want, and the Tories appear to have a clue except they're merrily self-destructing. The Greens, bizarrely, have moved from being another joke party to actually making a serious effort now - compare the current clips with earlier instalments (such as the Race to Number 10 board game from 2017 or their boy band music video of 2015).
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In the wee hours of the morning the BBC quizzed figures (starts around 22m30s in) from the three main English parties as to what they thought would happen. Roughly paraphrasing:

Conservatives: ...yeah, we're probably going to lose councillors. Hopefully just 500 but maybe a thousand if it goes badly.
Labour: we lost 200-odd councillors last time and want them back.
Lib Dems: a three-figure gain would be awesome.

And the results with all 248 councils declared, compared to 2015 results:

Conservatives: lost 1334 councillors
UKIP: lost 145 councillors
Labour: lost 82 councillors
Greens: gained 194 councillors
Others: gained 662 councillors (quite a lot of independents doing well on local issues)
Lib Dems: gained 703 councillors

Well, that exceeded everyone's expectations - consensus in the run-up was that the Tories were going to get a kicking (the government traditionally does badly in local elections), but they didn't expect to lost quite so many. And the Lib Dems have done spectacularly well out of the resulting chaos.

The BBC deployed Prof Curtice to sum it up as the electorate collectively deciding "a plague on both your houses" of the Tories and Labour, which seems about right. The Tory leadership is still pursing Brexit at all costs with the only argument being how much of mess they're willing to make of it, while the Labour leadership can't make up their mind whether they want to be in/out/shake it all about. I've thought for a while now that the Lib Dems could do very well if they went all in on a single issue campaign of stop Brexit, and they've only gone and done just that with spectacular success.

Bring on the MEP election chaos!

Edit: updated with final numbers
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It's local election time for some here in Blighty, which means it's time for another collection of Party Political Broadcasts for me to snark at! This is a bit late as I forgot about them because the local council isn't up for election.

The BBC's making them increasingly awkward to find but I think I've managed to track them down by puzzling through the iPlayer filters - at the time of posting they're listed in the middle of this page. At least the BBC actually understand that "A-Z" is a useful sort order! Anyway, on with the nonsense...


This time I started with the Conservatives... and predictably it's all about how terrible Labour and the Lib Dems are at running local councils and how awesome Tory councils are at building ALL THE THINGS. With a bonus cameo from the Maybot telling everyone how clear the choice is.

Labour are using a charity donation advert to point out that austerity isn't over, and only Labour has the courage to fix things by spending money. Oh, and Labour will build ALL THE THINGS as well (with a notable lack of Corbyn).

The Liberal Democrats are no longer the 3rd biggest at Parliament (they're what, 4th or 5th these days), and so start by taking the opportunity to reminisce about their glory days before getting sidetracked with Brexit. Eventually they realise that the MEP elections aren't for another month.

UKIP only have a regional clip this time, for Northern Ireland of all places. They use a management presentation to rant about NI politics and say how they'll make everything a priority.

The Greens, unusually, have a serious broadcast about changing ALL THE THINGS. Hopefully.

Nothing from Plaid Cymru or the SNP, and it's probably too soon to expect anything from Change UK (the new Lib Dems?) or The Brexit Party (Nigel Farage's comeback tour).


It's an unusual pile of clips. Local elections are always different here - it's much more about local issues and much less about central government, and historically parties beyond the main two (Labour/Tory) do a lot better in local elections. It's common for a local council to end up with no overall control and no-one really has a problem with it (unlike the coalition government of 2010 which confused everyone). Even so, there were surprises - Lib Dems have gone all-in on stopping Brexit, while the Greens actually pointed that they were taking things seriously for a change. Labour and the Tories didn't disappoint though with their traditional mutual blaming of each other for everything.


Well the polls closed half an hour ago and with it only being local elections there's no posses of students frantically counting votes to be first to declare, so it'll be tomorrow before we get any idea how the votes have swung. It could make for an interesting preview of the upcoming MEP elections...

Now what?

Jun. 9th, 2017 06:38 pm
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And I thought the 2010 result was going to make things complicated...

With 1 seat left (Kensington, and it'll probably go to Labour given that the Tories are the ones demanding the recounts - but it won't affect the possible groupings) there's now enough numbers to work out what governments, if any, are possible. The magic number for control of the Commons this time is 322 (based on 650 seats minus the 7 Sinn Fein MPs and the Speaker) and no-one has enough for a majority.

The Tories get first go as largest party but with their 318 seats they need to find 4 more from somewhere. Based on the numbers they've got a few options, but in reality they only have the one - the DUP is the only party that'll touch them with the proverbial bargepole and with 10 seats that gives a total of 328 and a 6-seat majority. So that's what the Tories have announced they'll do with a surprising amount of optimism. Theresa May's speech in particular was incredibly arrogant - how has any of this resulted in "a government that can provide certainty" or given "the largest number of votes" to the "Conservative & Unionist Party" (that pairing may have the most seats but only 43.3% of the vote - Lab+LD got 47.4%)?

On the Labour side, their 261 seats mean they need quite a few other parties. In fact they need all of the other parties - Lab+SNP+LD+PC+Green only gives 261+35+12+4+1=313, not enough to beat the Tories let alone gain control. To wrest control they need another 9 on top of that and the only way they can achieve that is by pulling the DUP in as well. Which is unlikely as the DUP are right up there with UKIP and the Tories in political position.

It all comes down to the DUP now - they're the very unexpected kingmakers of the election and can make or break the Tory party. The challenge for the Tories now is if they can somehow come up with a Queen's Speech that both gets the DUP's support while not alienating their own party... and given the DUP's policies I don't think that's possible.

My prediction is that the Queen's Speech will have too much of what the DUP wants in it and end up being rejected by rebelling Tories who think it's going too far. This then gives Labour a crack at forming a government, but with the numbers the way they are they'll be easily defeated by the Tories (with or without the DUP) and at that point it's election time again.
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Spoiler alert: the exit poll is in, and it's hilarious:

Conservative: 314
Labour: 266
SNP: 34
Lib Dem: 14

So no-one is predicted a majority (326 seats are needed)... and for added hilarity Labour+SNP+LibDem = 314, the same as the Tories. The only even remotely likely coalition for a majority is Con+LibDem, but I don't see that happening given how it worked out for the Lib Dems last time.

That said, the SNP prediction is apparently very iffy so it could still all change. I wonder what sort of result I'll wake up to tomorrow?
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I've voted, and not for you!

And you know what? I might even have not voted for the same party as you. I might have voted for the Tories while opposing their NHS plans. I might have voted for Labour while disagreeing with their transport policies. I might have voted Lib Dem while opposing their political reforms. I could even have voted Green while disagreeing with their energy proposals.

I looked at the options and considered the policies. I voted based on what I agreed with and what I disagreed with.

And most importantly, not based on how my Facebook feed was screaming at me about how I absolutely must vote a particular way because anyone who doesn't vote that way is obviously an evil person who obviously hates the poor/rich/healthy/ill/young/old/homeless/homeowners/privatisation/nationalisation/community/companies/locals/immigrants/dolphins/foxes.
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It's becoming increasingly hard to find the election propaganda these days. In 2005 the BBC had a fairly decent setup with RealPlayer, but that doesn't work anymore since all the browser writers have decided to kill all plugins with fire (nevermind that they're actually useful...).

In 2010 the BBC had a page listing all the broadcasts with links to individual pages, which is not quite as nice to use but does the job.

In 2015 they shuffled the broadcasts in with all the other Election 2015 reports.

In 2017... it appears the only way is to search for "Party Election Broadcasts General Election" in iPlayer and hope something sensible appears. Importantly, I must not add "2017" unless I only want to see the NI parties in the results. And when I do find the video to watch, I have to click four different links to play it (first link goes to a programme page, then "Watch now" goes to the episode page, then the play icon on that asks if I have a BBC account or a TV Licence, and finally I can actually watch the thing).


I can't help but think that so much of the modern internet is one step forwards, two steps back. Especially the current trend to replacing any sort of index or listing with a search box that doesn't understand boolean operators or quotes and returns results in an apparently random order.


Anyway, I've finally found them and so it's time to work out which party to vote for (again). It's surprisingly tricky this time round - all of them have terminally stupid proposals in their manifestos, most of them have surprisingly sensible ideas as well, and none of them come out particularly on top. And that's before you start considering tactical voting (since the most important thing is obviously to stop the Evil Tories, nevermind who wins as a result) or the fact that your preferred party might not even be standing as part of a pact (the Greens are staying out of some constituencies to help Labour or the Lib Dems, while UKIP are doing the same to help the Conservatives). It almost makes one want to give up on the whole thing and vote for the Monster Raving Loony Party...


So. I shall begin with Labour... who say it's all terrible these days but if you vote Labour they can fix everything and make a society that works for everyone.

On the other hand the Conservatives point out that it's all about Brexit and whoever wins has to make Brexit work. Somehow. Oh, and if the Tories win they'll also make a society that works for everyone.

The Liberal Democrats want to make it clear that there is another choice, and while no-one knows what will happen next the Lib Dems can give you lots of choices.

UKIP are trying to work out what everyone's thinking so they can say what they think everyone's thinking. And you can't trust Labour or the Tories because they're clearly in cahoots with each other.

The Greens have their latest board game on show - The Race To Number 10! Don't forget, in this game, nobody wins!

Plaid Cymru are worried that no-one even knows Wales exists, so they plan to invade Westminster to stop marauding Labour and Tory governments accidentally invading Wales.

Finally, the SNP are all about how awesome Scotland is, and how to keep Scotland awesome they must also invade Westminster to stop marauding Tory governments deliberately invading Scotland.


It's a rather depressing set of videos. The theme is definitely "everything's terrible, but if you vote for us then we might make things slightly less terrible" (except for the SNP who claim it's merely England where everything's terrible).
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I've voted, and as always, not for you!

Not that there was much to go on for this election - it's a district council one, and of the four parties standing only one so much as bothered with any sort of leaflet, let alone actually doing door-to-door canvassing. So that's an easy choice then.

It was very tempting to just write "meh" in the boxes instead of marking the traditional cross...


That said, there were some well-hidden party political broadcasts for the local election:

The Conservatives want to make it very clear that they have a Plan for Britain. And Brexit was a very important part of this Plan.

Labour are using blurry video reconstructions to show that the Evil Tories have taken all your benefits away. Only Labour can save you from the Evil Tories!

The fruitcake loony closest racist party (UKIP) claim they're for the ordinary person who wants to be left alone... as long as you're not an immigrant in need of the NHS.

Finally, the Lib Dems are trying to depress their viewers with a Groundhog Day loop of Brexit/Trump news. However if you get fed up of Labour and the Tories you can escape it by voting Lib Dem.

Crikey

May. 8th, 2015 08:26 am
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Crikey. Nothing I saw in the run-up to the election predicted an outright victory for anyone.

I was hoping for another coalition myself. All three major parties (or should I say the two major parties and a now-minor party) had downright stupid policies in their manifestos, so with luck combining two of them would have diluted the stupidity somewhat.

Still, at least UKIP haven't got any more seats.
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Since there's an election coming up I ought to work out which party to vote for. So, let's see what some of the different propaganda pieces look like.

For non-Brits: here in the UK, political parties aren't allowed to buy TV or radio adverts. Instead in the run-up to an election they each get assigned a small number of timeslots (the amount depending on how major the party is) on the basic terrestrial channels for a short, well, one-off advert. They tend to make up for their lack of airtime by bombarding everyone with leaflets.


Anyway, Labour say "The NHS is doomed and it's all the Tories' fault". Only you can save the NHS!... by voting for us. They also can't decide whether they want a party political broadcast, or behind-the-scenes footage of a party political broadcast.

The Conservatives say "Work hard, put a bit aside for a rainy day, and everything will be fine" (isn't that the American Dream?). In slow motion. Oh, and don't forget that Labour will doom us all.

The Lib Dems are on the radio explaining how "No-one's going to win, so you need us to make sure no-one wins". And remember to look both ways when crossing the road.

UKIP say "I'm an ordinary bloke"... and waffle about how if you vote for them it'll cause a political earthquake. They're staying very quiet about the fruitcakes, loonies, and closet racists.

The Greens say "We're not a wasted vote, honest". Followed by... the Tories at the piano serenading the other parties in an glitzy boy band pop music video. Apparently it's been the number 1 hit for the past 200 years.

The SNP use a road trip to tell us that, deep down, they really do care. About Scotland. Oh, and didn't you know there's an election coming up?

Plaid Cymru explain that it's time to come out of the closet and vote for them, so you can finally be happy and stop having to hide who you really support.


Well, the Greens have easily won the video competition. None of the others are even close to the madness that is the Tories, Labour, Lib Dems, and UKIP singing "It's sweeter, when we all agree, a party political harmony~".
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Today's achievement was voting for a police & crime comissioner. Now, most of you have probably been reading about the US election, which is actually a cunningly disguised multiple choice test with no correct answers. UK elections are much simpler:

To vote, you wander up to your polling station and give your polling card to the election officer (if you forgot your card, you just tell them your name and address. In-person fraud is so un-British that it just doesn't happen). They look up your name in a list, go "[livejournal.com profile] boggyb, right?" and record that you've turned up. They then give you a ballot paper.

You take this ballot paper and head off to one of the booths. Most UK elections use the first past the post system which means that to vote you put an X next to the candidate you want. The police & crime commissioner election used the supplementary vote for a change, which means you put an X in column 1 for your favourite candidate and if you wish an X in column 2 for your second favourite candidate. If there's multiple elections happening (the usual combination is local and general), you get one paper per election. Simples!

You then fold the paper in half and drop it in the ballot box. Officially you're supposed to show the back of it (with the ballot number) to the election officer, but the ones here have never been interested in that.

That's it. Later on at 10pm they will stop handing out ballot papers, and once everyone who's got one has voted the boxes will be sealed and taken somewhere to be counted. There they will be leisurely hand-counted and a result usually declared mid-morning the next day (unless you're Sunderland, in which case a small army of students will frantically count them in an attempt to be the first location to declare a result).
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So tomorrow we get to vote for a Police & Crime Commissioner... whatever one of those is. Apparently it's a replacement for the Police Authority, who set targets or something.

I've not heard a peep out of any of the local candidates - no leaflets through the post, no TV ad, not even a mention on the local news. That's unusual even by UK standards. The BBC did have a half-hearted link on the front page today to their police elections area, but that link's now gone. They ran one piece on TV about a week ago, which can be roughly summed up as "Can you do this? Nope. What about that? No. How about this? Hmmm... nope."

I intend to vote, as I've always held the philosophy that voting means I can then complain that either the candidate I voted for is not doing what they said they would, or that the candidate I didn't vote is doing at all wrong :) That said, I do at least skim over the manifestos so I have some vague idea of what I'm voting for. This is not easy for this election, as the only place I've seen any details of the candidates (beyond names) is on the independent http://www.policeelections.com/ site that I tripped across last week.

I'm still unconvinced that there's any point to this.

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